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Overwhelming support from women has Biden tied with Trump, Greenfield leading Ernst in new polls

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Presidential candidate Joe Biden takes a selfie with Molly Sherwood and her children following a campaign event at Big Grove Brewery in Iowa City. Wednesday, May 1, 2019. — Zak Neumann/Little Village

Joe Biden is tied with Donald Trump in a new Iowa Poll published by the Des Moines Register on Tuesday. Both candidates were supported by 47 percent of likely voters, with 4 percent telling pollsters they would vote for another candidate and 3 percent uncertain of how they will vote.

Trump carried Iowa easily in 2016, winning 51.2 percent of the vote, while Hillary Clinton only received 41.7 percent of the 1,566,031 votes cast in the state. But this year, Biden has an overwhelming lead among women, which has erased any lead Trump may have been expected to have.

Women voters backed Biden over Trump by 20 percentage points in the poll, 57 to 37 percent. In 2016, exit polls showed Clinton also won the women’s vote in Iowa, but only by 7 percentage points.

Trump leads Biden among men in the poll, 57 to 36 percent. But that 21 points percentage point lead is smaller than 2016, when exit polls showed him winning men by 28 percentage points.

The Iowa Poll was conducted by Seltzer & Co. for the Register and Mediacom between Sept. 14 and 17. In the same poll, Seltzer & Co. also asked Iowans about the U.S. Senate race, and found a similar dynamic.

Theresa Greenfield –Twitter photo

Democrat Theresa Greenfield, a Des Moines real estate executive and first-time Senate candidate, led Republican incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst, with 45 percent of likely voters supporting Greenfield in the poll. Ernst, who is running for a second term, received support from 42 percent of poll respondents.

Like Trump, Ernst easily won her last election, beating Rep. Bruce Braley in 2014 by 8.5 percentage points. Exit polls that year found both candidates were backed by 49 percent of women voters. The new poll, however, shows Ernst, like Trump, is facing a 20 percent deficit among women voters in 2020.

Greenfield leads Ernst 53 to 33 percent among women voters in the poll.

Seltzer & Co. surveyed 803 Iowans, including 658 self-identified likely voters. According to the company, the poll has a maximum margin of error of 3.5 percent for question put to all respondents and a maximum margin of error of 3.8 percent on questions for likely voters.


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