The field of Republican candidates running for president in hopes that something — anything — will prevent Donald Trump from winning the party’s nomination shrunk again this weekend, as Sen. Tim Scott quit the race. Last month, Scott’s campaign said the junior senator was going “all-in on Iowa,” so his announcement on Sunday may have come as a surprise.
Scott was scheduled to do two days of campaigning in Iowa after Wednesday night’s RNC candidate debate in Miami. He did make a speech in Des Moines on Thursday, but canceled all his scheduled events on Friday. Scott’s campaign said he had the flu. Whatever may have been wrong with Scott, it did not stop him appearing on former South Carolina Rep. Trey Gowdy’s Fox News show on Sunday.
“I think the voters, who are the most remarkable people on the planet, have been really clear that they’re telling me, ‘Not now, Tim,'” Scot told Gowdy. “I don’t think they’re saying, Trey, no, but I do think they’re saying not now. And so I’m going to respect the voters, and I’m going to hold on and keep working really hard and look forward to another opportunity.”
According to NBC News, Scott’s campaign staff was among those surprised by his announcement. Scott did not tell them in advance.
It’s obvious why Scott would believe voters were telling him “not now.” Scott focused his efforts on Iowa, even more so than on his home state of South Carolina, whose former governor Nikki Haley is also running for the Republican nomination, and whose present governor, Henry McMaster, has endorsed Trump. But the most recent Iowa Poll showed Scott was the first choice of only 7 percent likely Republican caucusgoers. That was a decline from the 9 percent he received in the August Iowa Poll.
Why Scott interprets those results as voters telling “not now,” as opposed to “no,” is unclear.
Scott was first appointed to his Senate seat in 2012, by then-Gov. Nikki Haley, after Jim DeMint stepped down to become president of the right-wing Heritage Foundation. In 2014, won a special election to complete DeMint’s term, and two years later was elected to his first full term. Prior to his Senate appointment, Scott has served one term in the US. House of Representatives. He is the only Black senator in the Republican’s 49-member Senate caucus, and one of only three Black Republicans serving in either chamber of Congress.
Scott left the race two weeks after former vice president Mike Pence gave up his run for the Republican nomination. Pundits who predicted earlier this year that Scott could be a leading candidate for the nomination said his connection to evangelical voters in Iowa would make him a serious contender in the state. Pence, on the other hand, did not appeal to any identifiable constituency as a viable candidate. The former vice president was the first choice of 2 percent of respondents in the most recent Iowa Poll.
Scott’s withdrawal came almost exactly a week after Gov. Kim Reynolds endorsed Ron DeSantis for president. The Associated Press reported that shortly before Reynolds made her speech at the River Center in Des Moines on Nov. 7 endorsing the Florida governor, the DeSantis campaign issued a memo to its national donor network saying its goal is for DeSantis to a close enough second in Iowa to deny Trump “a big win” in the state.
The memo does not explain how DeSantis will overtake Trump if he manages that second place finish, beyond saying “a close battle in the Hawkeye State will reveal [Trump’s] political vulnerabilities and inspire Republican voters across the country.”
Reynolds has said she will actively campaign on DeSantis’ behalf. Based on the most recent Iowa Poll, DeSantis will need her help if he is to reach his goal of a respectable second-place finish. DeSantis was tied for second place with Nikki Haley in the poll. Both candidates were the first choice of 16 percent of respondents. For DeSantis that marked a decline of three percentage points from his 19 percent showing in the August Iowa Poll. For Haley, it was a jump of 10 percentage points from her 6 percent showing in August.
In the same poll, Trump was the first choice of 43 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers. That was an uptick of one point since August.
The AP reported on Monday that Haley’s campaign plans to spend $10 million in TV, radio and online ads aimed at audiences in Iowa and New Hampshire that will begin airing the first week of December.
“Haley’s planned investment, as of now, is more than five times larger than DeSantis’ current advertising reserves for the same time period, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact,” the AP said.
In addition to Trump, DeSantis and Haley, there are still five other Republican candidates still in the race: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ryan Binkley. Among them, Ramaswamny, who recently announced he has rented an apartment in Des Moines, and Christie, who is skipping Iowa to focus on New Hampshire, had the most support at 4 percent each. Burgum was the first choice of 3 percent of respondents, ahead of Hutchinson, who was the first choice of 1 percent. No one in the October Iowa Poll — not a single person — said Ryan Binkley was their first choice.
