Donald Trump was the first choice of 51 percent of respondents in the latest Iowa Poll of likely Republican caucusgoers. That’s an eight percentage point increase from Trump’s previous best showing this year, 43 percent in the Iowa Poll conducted in late October.
The poll of 502 registered Republicans who said they will “definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucus” by Seltzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom, was conducted between Dec. 2 and 7. The survey period began almost a month after Gov. Kim Reynolds officially endorsed Ron DeSantis, telling Iowans Trump “can’t win” in 2024 but “Ron can.” It’s also 11 days after Bob Vander Plaats, president and CEO of the state’s largest evangelical political organization, endorsed the Florida governor.
DeSantis’s numbers improved slightly in the new poll. In October, he was tied with Nikki Haley for second place. Both candidates were the first choice of 16 percent of poll respondents. According to the poll published by the Register on Monday, DeSantis is now the first choice of 19 percent, while Haley remains at 16 percent. That three point increase returns DeSantis to the same position he was in the August Iowa Poll: alone in second place as the first choice of 19 percent of respondents.
It’s unclear if Reynolds’ and Vander Plaats’ endorsements should be credited with DeSantis’ three-point gain, if he benefited from other candidates dropping out of the race, or if another factor or combination of factors caused the shift.
Even though DeSantis has reclaimed sole possession of second place in the Iowa Poll, it’s an even more distant second place than it was in August. Then, Trump led DeSantis by 23 percentage points, and now Trump is ahead by 32 percentage points.
Aside from Haley, no other candidate was the first choice of more than 5 percent of poll respondents.
The poll also indicates that Iowa Republicans are increasingly less concerned about the 91 felony charges and civil lawsuits Trump is currently facing.
Seventy-three percent said they don’t believe Trump’s unprecedented position as a defendant in criminal and civil cases while campaigning for president will damage his chances of beating Biden. That’s an increase of 8 percentage points since the October poll.
