On Wednesday, the Democratic Attorney Generals Association (DAGA) endorsed Nate Willems, the Democrat challenging incumbent Republican Iowa AG Brenna Bird in this year’s election. The endorsement isn’t a surprise since Willems is the only Democrat in the AG’s race. But what was more noteworthy were the results of a new poll that DAGA published along with its endorsement. The poll found Willems just two percentage points behind Bird among likely voters in the Nov. 3 general election.
Global Strategy Group (GSG), a major Democratic polling firm, surveyed 600 Iowans who described themselves as likely voters in the general election, from April 6-9 using text-to-web messages and phone interviews. Bird, finishing her first term as AG, was supported by 45 percent of respondents, while Willems was the choice of 43 percent.
“The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.0%,” according to GSG.
In the memo summarizing its findings, GSG highlighted Willems’ advantage among independent voters in the poll. The Democrat led Bird by 15 points, 44% to 29%, among all independents. Among self-described “non-conservative independents and Republicans,” Willems’ lead was even larger, 53 to 23 percent.
“These voters are critical to building a winning coalition, particularly in Iowa, where independent voters have traditionally broken toward Republicans in statewide races,” the memo states.
Any Democrat running for statewide office needs significant support from independent voters to win, because there are fewer registered Democrats in Iowa than there are Republicans or independents. According to the voter registration totals published by the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office at the beginning of this month, there are 692,089 Republican voters listed as active on the state’s voting rolls and 588,500 registered as No Party Preference, but only 496,219 Democrats.
Iowa has a well-earned reputation as a difficult state for political pollsters to gauge, and the Iowa Poll, which was the state’s most reliable poll until it suddenly wasn’t, is no longer being published by the Des Moines Register, so there has been very little polling on this year’s statewide races. But the GSG results are similar to the ones from a poll conducted by a pro-Bird group last year.
The Fund for Economic Independence, a Virginia-based dark money group, ran an ad promoting Bird on TV and online streaming services in October. The following month, the Fund released the results of polls it said were taken before and after its $600,000 ad buy “targeting 303,589 persuadable voters.” The Fund’s news release said Willems had a seven percentage point lead over Bird before the ad ran, 46 to 39 percent, and that the two candidates were tied after the ad at 41 percent support for each.
The “before” poll surveyed 600 self-identified likely voters, the “after” poll surveyed 1,025.
Willems isn’t nearly as well known statewide as Bird is, so it’s likely that Bird’s unpopularity is what was driving the poll results from both the Fund and GSG.
Nate Willems is an attorney whose practice has focused on labor law, representing workers and unions. He was born in Anamosa, attended Georgetown University in Washington D.C., but returned to Iowa for law school, earning his degree from the University of Iowa College of Law. Willems served two terms in the Iowa House representing a Linn County district. He is a partner in a Cedar Rapids law firm and lives in Mount Vernon with his wife Maggie, a public school teacher, and their three daughters.
“I have spent my career working to ensure Iowans have good paying jobs, with dignity and healthcare, both as a legislator and as an attorney,” Willems said in a written statement responding to the DAGA endorsement. “As attorney general, I will continue this fight to protect and expand every Iowans’ rights and freedoms. I’ll go after corporations who steal from Iowa workers, while also making Iowa communities safer by working with prosecutors and local law enforcement to secure convictions for violent crime.”
When Willems launched his campaign in May last year, it wasn’t clear if Bird would be running for a second term. The AG was expected to seek reelection up until Gov. Kim Reynolds announced she wouldn’t run again. As soon as Reynolds made her announcement on April 11, 2025, Bird issued a written statement indicating she might run for governor.
“In the weeks ahead, Bob and I will pray and consider what this decision [by Reynolds] means for our future,” Bird wrote. “I appreciate the calls of encouragement I’ve already received. I am committed to continuing my work on behalf of Iowans and to support President Trump as he works to Make America Great Again.”
Whether it was because of conversations with husband or praying, or possibly due to the lack of an endorsement from President Trump — who called Bird “One of the truly most respected people in all of politics, beyond your state, beyond anywhere,” when she endorsed him months ahead of the 2024 Iowa Caucus, and said on caucus night, “She’s gonna be your governor someday, I predict” — Bird decided to run for reelection to her current office in July.
“I am absolutely determined to do justice and hold this office to prevent it from being occupied by a radical, progressive Democrat who would undo all we’ve accomplished,” Bird said in a written statement when she announced her decision.
As an incumbent in a state that reelects incumbents at an unusually high rate, and as a Republican in a state where Republicans have a commanding lead over Democrats in voter registration, Bird entered the race with distinct advantages. She also holds an overwhelming lead when it comes to fundraising, according to the figures from the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board.
The deadline for reporting funds raised since Jan. 1 is May 19, so numbers for this year are not yet available, but according to campaign filings, Willems raised a total of $717,599 last year, spent $181,643 and ended the year with $535,956 in the bank. Bird raised $2,000,205, spent $299,195 and ended December with $2,207,999 on hand.
Almost half of the total Bird raised in 2025 came from a last-minute donation by the Republican Attorney Generals Association (RAGA). On Dec. 31, RAGA donated $1 million to Bird, who serves on RAGA’s executive committee. Willems received a total of $11,530 from the DAGA Action Fund last year.
In its memo, GSG called the AG’s race “highly competitive.” Despite the fact the “electorate heavily self-identifies Republican (R+9) that would have supported Trump over Harris by 10 points in 2024, those dynamics are not benefiting the Republican incumbent.”
This is Willems’ first run for statewide office. Bird’s first was in 2010, when she ran for AG against longtime Democratic incumbent Tom Miller, and lost by 11 percentage points. In 2022, Bird ran again against Miller, who was seeking an 11th term as AG. It was a year that saw sweeping Republican victories in the state, with Republicans winning every statewide office except State Auditor and increasing their majorities in both chambers of the legislature. Bird beat Miller by 1.7 percentage points.
