Mike Huckabee, the former governor and Baptist preacher born and raised in Hope, Ark., is back in Iowa. He skipped the 2012 election cycle, working as a news analyst after his come-from-behind 2008 victory in the Iowa caucuses over big-spending Mitt Romney.
Now the question is, can he do it again?
Huckabee is known for his easy-going charm and nice-guy personality that appeals to many Iowa voters. But he’s not especially good-looking (he’s often compared to character actors Jim Nabors or Kevin Spacey) or rich, although his fortunes have grown since he ran for president. He got to the Arkansas Governor’s mansion when his predecessor resigned then went on to serve two more terms in part because he presents himself as a nice guy in a tie.
So what pushed this small-state Evangelical to the top in Iowa last time he ran?
In July 2007, polls of Iowa Republican voters placed Mike Huckabee in the second-tier of candidates. Running far behind top three heavy-hitters Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson, he was roughly tied for fourth in a tight pack with Senators John McCain and Sam Brownback.
Huckabee said he was employing a Nascar strategy, letting the other candidates crash into the walls and run out of gas. His campaign was running on fumes, with middling fundraising totals. He ended up spending less than half a million in Iowa, a far better return on his supporters’ dollars compared to the roughly $7 million that Romney spent for second place here.
What propelled Mike, a former heavyweight himself, into the top spot on Jan. 3, 2008, the day of the Iowa caucuses? It wasn’t just Huckabee’s churchy warmth and his ability to charm small-town Iowa.
On Aug. 11, Huckabee finished in second place at the Ames Presidential Straw Poll after eventual nominee McCain abandoned the GOP straw poll game along with Giuliani. This somewhat surprising finish came amid a flurry of media appearances where the at-ease man of God Huckabee flaunted his fluid wit and everyman humor on a national stage, while bringing significant media savvy into debates.
Before the caucuses, one political analyst, David Redlawsk — then with the University of Iowa — even worried that Huckabee would be peaking too soon.
Along the way, shoutouts came from fellow Arkansan Bill Clinton, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and even Rev. Jesse Jackson. (Who else endorsed Mike Huckabee? Then-Florida House Speaker/now-US Senator and presidential candidate Marco Rubio and the Iowa City Press-Citizen.)
It certainly didn’t hurt that martial arts superstar and Walker, Texas Ranger lead Carlos Ray “Chuck” Norris approved of Mike’s message in October 2007.
But ol’ Huck gave all thanks to God for his rise in the polls, citing the guiding touch of a higher power, “It’s the same power that helped a little boy with two fish and five loaves feed a crowd of 5,000 people,” he said.
By December, he’d surpassed Romney in two polls and his ascendence brought a surprising start to the Republican primary. Less than a week after the Iowa caucus, he finished third in New Hampshire and ultimately dropped out, despite having won a handful of Southern states.
What will bring Huckabee to the top this time? In May of this year, he dropped the straw poll from his calendar, just a few weeks before the Iowa GOP fundraiser was officially declared dead. He won’t be the flashiest candidate. And, he’s competing for votes that haven’t been decided yet — his folks will literally pray over their caucus decision.
He won’t have the millionaire’s haircut, private jet or expensive outfits. He won’t need those things. He’s a retail politicker and that’s what many Iowans like. Huckabee postures none of the intellectual steeliness of Rand Paul or the big city celebrity status of Donald Trump.
Huckabee’s biggest competition is Scott Walker, a Midwesterner who ran second to Jeb Bush in a national June poll by NBC/Wall Street Journal. Walker officially announced this week and is a red-meat Republican with a winning record.
By a kind of political ministering, Huckabee will call his flock together. He’s already sounding an Islamophobic alarm on the US-Iran nuke deal by reissuing the infamous 1964 “Daisy” ad of LBJ which features an atomic mushroom cloud (view below). And he’s still got backers in Iowa who oppose gay marriage as much as he does (a lot), or will hear his call to defund Planned Parenthood and divert some of their church tithings towards Mike’s till.
For all his fear-mongering and intolerant views, Mike Huckabee’s conservative message is presented in a down-home body. Nothing too frightful, he wants you to come back to church next week. He’ll give you good news from the Good Book and some fire and brimstone for contrast. Clean suits, nothing fancy, gentle tones.
Huckabee’s game is to preach and preach some more. He’s likable in a way that Jeb Bush can’t be and Scott Walker hasn’t yet learned how to be.
The Iowa caucuses are won by the person with the best personality which is why Mitt Romney failed here twice despite a huge staff and millions of dollars.
Mike Huckabee will find it difficult to advance although he has a much bigger fundraising haul, $8 million through his presidential SuperPAC and an advocacy group called “America Takes Action.” That number is three times what he raised in the same period during the 2008 campaign.
He might be able to advance because he’s a niche candidate who draws certain people in with his grin and pep. Centrists in the Republican establishment may crave a Bush III or an upstart Scott Walker but first they’ll have to get past Huckabee, the vast amount of evangelical voters in Iowa and his growing campaign coffers.
