538_projection_july_27

A careful look at Nate Silver & Team’s 538 Election Forecast 2016 suggests that the GOP Post Convention Trump Bump may have crested yesterday. In the days ahead we anticipate the electoral college and popular vote to again widen. According to 538, the former now stands at 276.2 EC votes for HRC, 261.3 for DJT if the election were held today. Libertarian Gary Johnson receives 0.5 EC votes.
 

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  1. LV Readers – I may have spoken too soon. For those Day Traders out there, I note a slight 0.4 up– and downtick for the two campaigns, with DJT edging that much closer to a statistical tie with HRC. Still very much a horse race! Stay tuned and don’t forget to vote!

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  2. August 3 follow-up: what a difference 5 days make. 538’s revised map now has the projected Electoral College votes at 311.2 for HRC and 226.4 for EJT with Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson getting the final 0.4.

    A combination of factors com into play: the anticipated Convention Bounce (or bump as we dubbed it in our the initial post); DJT’s response to Khizr Khan’s DNC address [http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/full-text-khizr-khans-speech-2016-democratic-national/story?id=41043609]; and GOP’s internecine squabbles (DJT’s refusal to endorse Paul Ryan’s in his upcoming primary election, among others).

    * August 3, 2016 10:40 CDT screen shot.
    https://testwebsite12359898.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/538_map_aug_3_2016_10_40_cdt.png

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  3. If Clinton pushes away some of her potential supporters; fails to energize others to vote; and fires up Trump’s base by pandering to her own—well, she just might be able to make the numbers work out for him. If he

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