Kamala Harris becoming the Democrat’s nominee has dramatically changed how Iowans think about the 2024 presidential election, according to a new Iowa Poll. The poll published by the Des Moines Register on Sunday showed Donald Trump leading Harris among likely voters, 47 percent to 43 percent. All year, Trump has led his Democratic opponent in the Iowa Poll, but 4 percentage points is his smallest lead.
In the previous Iowa Poll, conducted in June, Trump led then-candidate President Joe Biden by 18 percentage points, 50-32.
“The poll puts the race more closely in line with the 2020 election results, which ultimately saw Trump win Iowa by about 8 percentage points over Biden,” according to the Register.
Seltzer & Co. conducted its survey of 811 Iowans Sept. 8-11, meaning most of the responses were collected prior to the Sept. 10 debate between Harris and Trump.
During the debate, Donald Trump offered rambling, vague and off-topic responses to moderators’ questions, and repeated racist lies about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio. National polls conducted after the debate uniformly found that viewers considered Harris the winner. There was widespread mockery of Trump’s performance across social media.
Like polls conducted in other states, the new Iowa Poll found a surge in enthusiasm among likely Democratic voters. Eighty percent of respondents who said they will vote for Harris described themselves as enthusiastic or very enthusiastic about her candidacy. Among Trump supporters, the number was 74 percent. Eighty-one percent of respondents said they will definitely vote in the November election, an increase from 76 percent in June.
Harris voters were somewhat more likely to say their decision was fixed than Trump supporters, 89 percent to 84 percent.
Trump has always polled stronger among men than women, and the new Iowa Poll found a wide gender gap. Among men, Trump leads 59 percent to 32 percent. Among women, Harris leads 53 percent to 36 percent.
Both candidates have almost total support from their party members. Harris was supported by 95 percent of Democratic respondents and Trump was supported by 94 percent of Republican respondents. Among survey participants who said they don’t belong to a political party, Trump leads Harris 41 percent to 36 percent. The gender gap was also present among those independent voters, with men supporting Trump 46-33 and women supporting Harris 40-35.
Harris erased 14 points from Trump’s 18-point lead over Biden in June despite having no campaign organization in Iowa, and not campaigning in the state.
The new poll also looked at the other candidates for president who will be on the November ballot. Robert Kennedy Jr. ended his campaign for president last month and endorsed Trump, but decided to keep his name on the ballot in certain states where it might help, or at least not hinder, Trump. Kennedy remains on the ballot in Iowa.
Kennedy received support from 6 percent of respondents, a decline from the 9 percent he received in June. Libertarian Party presidential candidate Chase Oliver was the choice of 1 percent of respondents. One percent also said they did not know who they’re voting for.
