Read by Marilyn Thompson
Two polls covering the race for governor and the race for Iowa’s open Senate seat were published last week. Rob Sand was one percentage point ahead of Zach Lahn in a New York Times/Siena poll, but in a Fox News poll published one day later, Sand leads Lahn by nine percentage points. For the Senate race, the polls disagreed on which candidate is ahead.
The Times poll, conducted June 15-27, surveyed 600 self-described likely voters whose names had been selected from the state’s list of registered voters. The Fox poll, conducted June 23-27, surveyed 1,003 registered voters who described themselves as likely to vote in the November general election. The Times estimated its poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points, while Fox said its poll has a +/- 3 percentage point margin of error.
In both surveys, 85% of respondents said they were either extremely likely or very likely to vote in the election. Respondents in both polls cited economic issues as the most important issues in the coming election. The Times asked people to rate Iowa’s economy: 54% responded “only fair” or “poor,” while 38% said “good.” Only 8% chose “excellent” as a response.
According to the Times poll results, if the election were held today, 46% of its respondents would vote for Republican Ashley Hinson and 44% would vote for Democrat Josh Turek. But according to the Fox poll, Turek leads Hinson, 50%-46%.
In both polls, Turek had a higher favorability rating than Hinson. According to the Times, 46% of people surveyed had a very favorable or somewhat favorable view of Turek, while 19% have a somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable view. In the Fox poll, 51% had a strongly or somewhat favorable view of Turek, and 33 percent had a strongly or somewhat negative one.
Hinson’s favorable/unfavorable numbers in the Times poll were 41%/35%, and 42%/49% in the Fox poll.
Both surveys also asked about President Trump. In the Times poll, 47% said Trump’s policies have hurt Iowa, while 33% said they have helped and 19% said they haven’t made much difference. Forty-six percent told the Times that Hinson supports Trump “too much.” Interestingly, the same percentage of respondents said that Turek would oppose Trump too much.
Fox’s version of the Trump question focused on Hinson: “Regardless of how you plan to vote, how concerned are you that Ashley Hinson is too close to Donald Trump?” Half of the people said they were concerned, with 35 percent choosing “extremely concerned” and 15 percent choosing “very concerned.” Twenty-two percent said they were “not very” concerned and 28% selected “not at all.”
Both the Times and Fox conduct polls to share with a national audience, so the questioning in both was more detailed on the Senate race, which has national implications. But the two polls also contained the only significant polling data on the Iowa governor’s race published since the June 2 primary.
The Times poll was much closer than Fox’s, but Rob Sand leads Zach Lahn in both. According to the Times, Sand leads 48% to 47%, while Fox has Sand winning the support of the majority of its poll respondents, with 53% to Lahn’s 44%.
The Fox poll also looked at the favorability ratings of the two candidates. Sand is viewed favorably by 54% of respondents, and unfavorably by 33%. As for Lahn, 41%, said they view him unfavorably, while 38% have a favorable opinion of him. Thirteen percent of respondents said they have “never heard of” Lahn, while only 7% said the same of Sand.
The Times poll asked its participants what “single source news source” they most often rely on. The most frequent answer was social media, which 18% primarily rely on. National TV network, the choice of 15%, ranked second. Fox News, which 13% rely on, polled higher than either local broadcast news (9%) or NPR/PBS (6%). Only 1% chose “Local print or online news organizations” as the news source they use most often.
Marilyn Thompson (Iowa City) is retired, having formerly worked as a secretary at a junior high school. She had a stroke in 2009 and has since been living with aphasia, an acquired communication disorder that can affect talking, comprehension, reading, and writing, but does not impact intelligence. Marilyn continues to attend aphasia groups at the University of Iowa Speech, Language, and Hearing Clinic (UISHC), and hopes to bring awareness to the importance of being patient and taking the time to really listen to others as they communicate.
Community Voices is a collaboration between Little Village magazine and the University of Iowa Speech, Language, and Hearing Clinic.
