A new poll by Public Policy Polling (PPP) finds Sen. Joni Ernst struggling against the four Democrats running for Senate in head-to-head matchups. The North Carolina-based polling firm surveyed 572 Iowa voters from Aug. 18 to Aug. 19. Sixty-nine percent of respondents were surveyed via texted questions, while the remaining 31 percent responded to questions verbally over the phone.
The poll was commissioned by the campaign of Zach Wahls, who represents Coralville, North Liberty and other parts of Johnson County in the Iowa Senate. Wahls, one of the state’s best-known Democrats, announced his run for Senate in June.
The poll asked respondents for their preferences in head-to-head matchups between Ernst and the Democrats twice. After providing their initial answers as to which candidates they would support, respondents were given information about the candidates, then asked again about their preferred candidates.
In the first set of responses, Ernst finished 1 percentage point ahead of Wahls, 43-42. That changed in the second set of responses, and Wahls pulled 2 points ahead of Ernst, finishing with 45 percent support while Ernst’s support dropped 1 point to 42 percent.
Wahls was the only candidate to receive more support than Ernst in the poll, but the three other Democrats also saw their standing against Ernst improve after respondents were provided with information about them.
Nathan Sage, a veteran and the former executive director of the Knoxville Chamber of Commerce, finished 4 percentage points behind Ernst, 45-41, in the first set of questions. After the respondents were given more information by PPP, Sage, a first-time candidate, picked up a percentage point. Ernst lost a point, but remained ahead, 44-42.
Jackie Norris, chair of the Des Moines School Board, saw a similar change in the survey. The first set of questions resulted in Ernst leading Norris 45-42, but that shrunk to a one-point lead, 44-43, in the second set of questions.
Josh Turek, who represents Council Bluffs in the Iowa House and launched his campaign just seven days before the survey, started 4 points behind Ernst in the first set of questions, 45-41, but like Norris, finished 1 point behind Ernst in the post-information questions, 44-43.
According to PPP, all the poll results have a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.
These results largely track with PPP poll on Iowa voters’ views of Ernst conducted in June. That survey of 568 voters included a head-to-head matchup between Ernst and a generic Democratic candidate. Ernst received support from 45 percent of respondents, while the generic Democrat garnered 43 percent support. Like the new poll, the June poll had a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent. It was commissioned by Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates.
In its commentary on the June poll, PPP said, “Ernst’s numbers follow a common pattern we are seeing for Republican Senators up for reelection next year where there’s near unanimous opposition to her among voters across party lines, but her numbers are also tepid within her base.”
The June poll was conducted just days after the town hall meeting in Butler County in which Ernst replied to concerns about Medicaid cuts leading to unnecessary deaths by saying, “Well, we all are going to die.”
Sixty-nine percent of poll respondents said they had heard about Ernst’s comment, and 37 percent said it made them less likely to vote for her in 2026.
The June PPP poll found that Ernst had a -8 percent net favorability rating, with 39 percent of respondents approving of the job she is doing, and 47 percent disapproving. In the new poll, Ernst has an even worse favorability rating. According to PPP, now 37 percent of respondents say they approve of her performance in office, while 50 percent disapprove, resulting in a -13 net favorability rating.
