Sen. Joni Ernst made it official on Tuesday: “After a tremendous amount of prayer and reflection, I will not be seeking reelection in 2026.” In a video message posted on social media, Ernst said representing Iowa in the U.S. Senate over the last 11 years was “the privilege of a lifetime.”
While Ernst’s fellow Republicans released statements praising her, Rep. Ashley Hinson’s stood out from the rest because most of it was about Hinson. After some words of praise for Ernst, Hinson changed the focus to herself.
“As we look forward, President Trump needs a fighter in the Senate,” Hinson wrote before going on to boast, “I’ve stood shoulder to shoulder with the President to pass this America First agenda in the House and I would be his strongest ally in the Senate.” Hinson said she and her husband “will have an announcement soon about how we believe we can best serve Iowa, and how we can help President Trump make America great again.”
Even though it was already obvious what Ashley and Tim Hinson believe, it would be almost another four hours before Hinson officially announced she was abandoning her run for reelection in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District to run for Senate instead.
Hinson immediately became the overwhelming favorite for the Republican Senate nomination. According to the most recent FEC campaign finance reports, Hinson’s congressional reelection campaign had $2,825,332 on hand at the end of June. She will be able to transfer all the money she has raised to her new Senate campaign.
Jennifer Jacobs of CBS News broke the news last Friday that Ernst would announce this week she was not running again. “Ernst has told people close to her that she intended to serve only two terms, she has accomplished what she set out to do, and intends to head to the private sector, one of the sources said,” Jacobs reported.
It’s true that Ernst did say she would only serve two terms in response to a question at a televised forum during her first run for the Senate in 2014, but it’s not a promise Ernst repeated either while running for reelection in 2020 or during the 2026 campaign season.
In her video, the only reason Ernst cited for not running again after spending months behaving like a candidate — hiring a reelection campaign manager, teasing an official campaign kickoff announcement in interviews — was wanting “to give back” to her family.
“Having been raised in a family who has given me so much love and support, now as our family ages and grows, it’s my time for me to give back to them,” Ernst said in the video.
It’s the same reason Gov. Kim Reynolds gave when she announced in April she wasn’t running for reelection. Both Republicans had poor poll numbers, and both would have to campaign as the Trump administration’s chaotic policies continue rolling out. Both were also likely to face much stronger Democratic candidates in the general election than they did last time. Of course, neither mentioned these factors in their announcement.
In her video, Ernst credited her becoming the first female combat veteran to the U.S. Senate to the support of her family, and in a more general way, the United States and God (“only in America and by the grace of God”). She did not mention two people who played a key role in her 2014 election victory, Charles and David Koch.
Ernst’s backing from the Koch brothers was well known during the 2014 campaign. But it wasn’t until Politico published an in-depth story in November 2015 — “How the Kochs launched Joni Ernst” — that the extent of “the secretive role played by the Kochs’ donors and operatives in boosting Ernst” became public knowledge.
According to Politico, “In the Ernst race, the Koch support included hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of television ads funded by undisclosed donors and tens of thousands of dollars in direct campaign contributions.”
In August 2013, one month after launching her first Senate campaign, Ernst was a special guest at a meeting of the Koch brothers’ political fundraising network at an exclusive resort in New Mexico. Politico reported that she had been invited because during her time in the Iowa State Senate, Ernst had “been watched closely by allies of the billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, who saw in her an advocate for their brand of free-market, libertarian-infused conservatism.”
The Koch brothers’ support helped Ernst, who began the 2014 race with little statewide name recognition, advance through a crowded Republican primary field of candidates for the Senate seat that became open with Tom Harkin’s retirement.
Ernst created a brand for herself with the “Make ‘Em Squeal” campaign commercial, which began, “I’m Joni Ernst. I grew up castrating hogs on an Iowa farm.” Ernst has referenced “Make ‘Em Squeal” throughout her Senate career, and did so again in her video on Tuesday.
Staring into the camera, Ernst said Iowans elected her 11 years ago “with a mission in mind, to make Washington squeal. And I’m proud to say, we have done it. We’ve cut waste, fraud and abuse across the federal government.”
Ernst did not give any examples of those cuts.
In her “Squeal” ad, Ernst listed two things she would accomplish along with cutting “wasteful spending” if elected to the Senate: “repeal Obamacare and balance the budget.”
Obamacare, of course, still exists, although it is about to become much more expensive for many people because of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which Ernst supported and voted for. As for balancing the budget, in fiscal year 2014 the federal budget deficit was $483 billion. In January, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the deficit will be $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2025.
Reviewing Ernst’s first term in the Senate, when she was running for reelection in 2020, Little Village wrote, “Ernst has voted in lockstep with Sen. Grassley since she arrived in Washington. And both have been loyal supporters of Donald Trump, voting with him on every major issue and approving all his nominees for federal office, including a record-setting number of judicial nominees rated ‘not qualified’ by the American Bar Association.”
There was a moment in January when it appeared that Ernst might defy Trump and break ranks with her party to make a principled stand, after she expressed some hesitation about voting to confirm Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense. Hegseth, a former Fox News host, was the least qualified person ever nominated for the position, had numerous personal issues and disparaged the service of women in combat roles. It was believed that opposition from Ernst would sink Hegseth’s nomination. But, as always, Ernst didn’t take any action to oppose Trump’s wishes, and fell into line, endorsing Hegseth’s nomination and voting to confirm him.
In 2020, Little Village concluded that based on Ernst’s lack of any signature accomplishments in her first term, if she wasn’t reelected, Ernst would likely be remembered for two things: being the first woman elected to federal office from Iowa and a quote, “Make ’em squeal.” Five years later, there are still no signature accomplishments in the Senate.
Ernst will definitely be remembered as the first woman elected to federal office from Iowa, and she’ll likely be remembered for a quote as well. Only now, the quote is more likely to be “Well, we all are going to die,” instead of “Make ’em squeal.”
