Sen. Joni Ernst has decided not to run for reelection, CBS News reported on Friday, citing “multiple sources familiar with the matter.” Ernst has told “confidants” she will publicly announce her decision next week, according to the report.
“Spokespeople for Ernst did not reply to requests for comment,” CBS White House correspondent Jennifer Jacobs wrote. (Jacobs is from Iowa, and covered politics for both the Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier and the Des Moines Register before moving to national media outlets.)
Although Ernst has never officially said she is running for reelection, she did hire a campaign manager in early June.
“I’m thrilled to have Bryan Kraber leading my re-election campaign,” Ernst said in a written statement on June 4. Kraber had also worked on Ernst’s 2020 reelection campaign.
By the time Ernst announced she’d hired Kraber, more than one news organization that covers the Senate had already reported that there were rumors on Capitol Hill that Ernst wasn’t really interested in seeking a third Senate term. But speaking to KCCI at the Iowa State Fair two weeks ago, a smiling Ernst sounded very much like a candidate.
“I don’t have my announcement today, but it’ll be coming soon,” she said.
“Ernst has told people close to her that she intended to serve only two terms, she has accomplished what she set out to do, and intends to head to the private sector, one of the sources said,” according to Jacobs.
While it’s true Ernst said she would only serve two terms in response to a question at a televised forum during her first run for the Senate in 2014, that’s not something Ernst repeated while running in 2020, or so far during the 2026 campaign season.
Jacob’s report comes approximately three months after Ernst made national headlines with her callous reply to a constituent’s concern about unnecessary deaths caused by the budget cuts to Medicaid that Ernst voted for as part of President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
“Well, we all are going to die,” Ernst responded at the May 30 town hall meeting in Butler County.
The next day, the senator posted a strange video on Instagram stories in which she mocked people who criticized her dismissive remark. Standing in a graveyard and staring directly into the camera, Ernst said she wanted “to take this opportunity to sincerely apologize” because she “made an incorrect assumption that everyone in the auditorium understood that yes, we are all going to perish from this earth.”
“So, I apologize. And I’m really, really glad that I didn’t have to bring up the subject of the Tooth Fairy as well. But for those that would like to see eternal and everlasting life, I encourage you to embrace my lord and savior, Jesus Christ.”
The senator then posted a second, slightly shorter version of the video with onscreen text, the season threeWhite Lotus theme song as the soundtrack, and repeated ’90s-MTV-style cutaways to her saying, “We all are going to die” during the town hall.
In a poll of Iowa voters’ opinions on Ernst conducted in June by Public Policy Polling for the Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates, 69 percent of respondents said they had heard about Ernst’s “all going to die” remark, and 37 percent said it made them less likely to vote for her in 2026. Overall, the poll found Ernst had a -8 percent net favorability rating, with 39 percent of respondents approving of the job she is doing, and 47 percent disapproving.
As of Friday morning, the pinned tweet at the top Ernst’s campaign account on X (formerly Twitter) was a Nov. 12, 2024 picture of her celebrating Republicans winning back control of the Senate. The day after that tweet, Ernst’s fellow Senate Republicans voted her out of their leadership team. Ernst, who had served as the chair of the Senate Republican Policy Committee, ran for chair of the Senate Republican Conference but was defeated by Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas.
That loss removed Ernst, once seen as a rising star among Senate Republicans, from any party leadership role. But nine days later, Ernst announced she was forming a new group in the Senate — the Senate DOGE Caucus — to support Elon Musk’s work on President Trump’s behalf.
Ernst’s behavior in her highest-profile committee assignment in the Senate was called into question in March, when ProPublica reported Ernst had a previously undisclosed romantic relationship with a lobbyist who appeared before her on the Senate Armed Services Committee. ProPublica’s reporting was based on a report on the lobbyist’s activities by the Inspector General of the U.S. Air Force. According to the investigative news nonprofit, it appeared to be the second time Ernst had engaged in a romantic relationship with a lobbyist who was seeking funding from the Armed Services Committee.
“It draws into question every position she’s taken that would affect his office,” Virginia Canter, a former government ethics lawyer who served in administrations of both parties, told ProPublica. “You’re expecting her to represent her constituents’ interests every time she supports a policy or votes. Once she has engaged in that kind of relationship, you have to call into question her impartiality.”
If Ernst does withdraw from the 2026 election next week, it leaves Iowa Republicans with two declared candidates, neither of whom is well-known. Jim Carlin served one year in the Iowa House and five years in the Iowa Senate representing parts of Woodbury County and is a hardcore supporter of President Trump and his various conspiracy theories. In 2022, Carlin ran against Sen. Chuck Grassley in the Republican primary, which Grassley won with 73 percent of the vote.
The other Republican currently running for Senate is Joshua Smith, who only recently joined the Republican Party. Last year, Smith, an Indianola resident, ran for the Libertarian Party nomination for president. After losing, Smith then ran for the Iowa State Senate as a Libertarian. He lost.
There are currently four Democrats seeking their party’s nomination for Senate: Nathan Sage, state Sen. Zach Wahls, Des Moines School Board President Jackie Norris and state Rep. Josh Turek.
